Consumers Search for Deals in Back-to-Class Shopping Season
The back-to-class season is one of the retail industry’s largest shopping events, second only to the November-December holiday shopping season. The annual shopping extravaganza encompasses both back-to-school spending (for kids in grades K-12) as well as back-to-college spending.
This year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. consumers to spend $39.4 billion on back-to-school shopping for their K-12 children. This is up $600 million (1.5%) from last year’s total of $38.8 billion. Likewise, back-to-college spending is expected to reach $88.8 billion, up $2.2 billion (2.5%) from last year’s total of $86.6 billion.
On average, the NRF expects each family to spend $858.07 on back-to-school items for their K-12 children, $16.61 lower than last year. Among their top purchases, shoppers will spend an average of $295.81 on electronics/computer equipment, $249.36 on clothing and accessories, $169.13 on shoes and $143.77 on school supplies.
College students and their families are expected to spend even more ($1,325.85) for the upcoming school year. However, this is down $38.90 from last year’s average of $1,364.75. College shoppers will focus their spending dollars on electronics/computer equipment ($309.50), dorm or apartment furnishings ($191.39) and clothing and accessories ($166.07).
The NRF highlights a number of trends it’s seeing among shoppers this back-to-class season. First, the NRF cites that consumers started their back-to-class shopping much earlier this year than last. 67% started their shopping in July, up from the 55% reported in 2024. This is the highest percentage of July shoppers since the NRF started tracking early shopping data in 2018. Likewise, 26% started their shopping in June. This is up from the 22% reported in 2024.
Another trend the NRF cites is that consumers anticipate higher retail prices this back-to-class season. 72% of shoppers surveyed by the NRF say they expect to pay higher retail prices resulting from either inflation or tariffs. However, 51% attribute the higher expected prices directly to tariff-related price increases.
The NRF suggests the anticipation of higher prices is likely driving budget-conscious consumers to shop earlier to capture summertime deals, discounts and promotions. One of the biggest summer shopping events is Prime Day, the national four-day shopping blitz that offers consumers significant online savings. This year Prime Day was held on July 8-11. According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. retailers reported a record-high $24.1 billion in online sales during these four days. This represents a 30% increase in growth from the same four days in 2024.
Despite the chaos of tariffs, consumer spending this year has remained fairly robust. According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales are up 3.5% versus one year ago. However, tariffs do create an element of uncertainty for household budgets. Being flexible and navigating the vast array of deals and promotions can help save a lot of money. But try and stick to your budget. Remember, the November-December holiday shopping season is right around the corner.
Mark M. Grywacheski, Investment Advisor
Quad Cities Investment Group is a Registered Investment Adviser.
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